New poll has Labour on track to win Harborough for first time since 1945 and General Election majority

Labour is on course to win the seat in Market Harborough for the first time since 1945, according to a new MRP poll.

In the latest research from Electoral Calculus, conducted on behalf of national communications agency PLMR, voters were asked how they would vote in a General Election tomorrow. In the first PLMR poll since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister, Labour is forecast to win 28% of the national vote, up from 22% in July and 17% in January.

Reform UK is predicted to win 21% of the vote, with the Conservatives on 18%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, the Green Party 9% and Restore Britain 8%.

On these figures, Labour would win 353 seats, giving it a majority of 56. The Conservatives would form the official opposition with 90 seats, ahead of Reform on 81. The Liberal Democrats would win 70 seats, the SNP 28, Plaid Cymru five and the Greens four.

It is a remarkable turnaround from July, when PLMR’s previous poll had Labour and Reform level on 22% and pointed to a hung parliament. Reform has now fallen ten points since January, with Restore Britain eating into its support.

In June last year, Nigel Farage’s party was forecast to win all but two of the 32 parliamentary constituencies in Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire. The new poll predicts it would win just four: Ashfield, Melton and Syston, North West Leicestershire and South Leicestershire.

Labour is forecast to win 27 seats, including Harborough, Oadby and Wigston - in what would be a first triumph for the party in Harborough since 1945 - with the Conservatives holding Hinckley and Bosworth. Labour would also take Newark, Mid Leicestershire and Leicester East from the Conservatives, and Leicester South from an independent.

Labour has now overtaken Reform UK as the best-supported party in the East Midlands with 32% of the vote. Reform are second on 27%, followed by the Conservatives 19%, Restore Britain 9%, the Greens 6% and the Liberal Democrats 5%.

The poll also asked who should have the biggest say over local services such as transport, housing and schools. In the East Midlands, 53% said their local council, 11% a regional mayor or combined authority and 5% the UK Government. Almost a third (31%) did not know, compared with a quarter of voters nationally.

Commenting on the findings, Rebecca Langton, PLMR Board Director and Head of PLMR Midlands, said:

“Three months ago, this looked like a two-horse race between Labour and Reform heading for a hung Parliament. Andy Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street has changed that picture entirely, and Labour is now on course for a working majority.

“The East Midlands has seen one of the most dramatic shifts anywhere in the country. Not long ago, Reform was forecast to win almost every seat in Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire and Derbyshire, and it is now predicted to hold just four.

“Andy Burnham has built his reputation on devolution, and is working increasingly closely with regional mayors like the East Midlands’ Claire Ward to focus on delivering growth in every postcode.

“However, almost a third of people in the East Midlands told us they don’t know who should be making decisions about their local services. Regional leaders, local authorities and businesses will want the new government to set out what greater local decision-making will mean in practice.”

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said:

“Our figures show a remarkable reversal of fortune for Labour under Andy Burnham, with the party now predicted to win 353 seats, an outright majority. Burnham has used clear left-of-centre rhetoric to win back those voters who drifted to the Liberal Democrats and the Greens when Keir Starmer was leader, rather than chasing Reform voters.

“The right, by contrast, remains split. Restore Britain would win very few seats, but it is cutting into Reform’s vote and leaving it with fewer than 100 seats - less than the Conservatives. A pact between the Conservatives and Reform would give them just 171 seats, not even half of Labour’s 353. Under the first-past-the-post system the side that unites first wins and Andy Burnham clearly understands that and is acting on it.”