Reform UK would take multiple Leicestershire seats if election was held now - but not Harborough

But Neil O'Brien would hold his current Harborough seat.

Many would say that polling this far away from a General Elections is pointless but it does offer a snapshot of how the country is feeling.

In Leicestershire, the county has long been a Conservative stronghold, but that saw change at last year’s general election, with even more changes predicted if we went to the polls at this very moment.

Going into the 2019 general election, the Conservatives returned seven out of seven Leicestershire seats for the party, but last year this changed when Jane Hunt’s Loughborough constituency and Andrew Bridgen’s North West Leicestershire post were both claimed by the Labour Party. The 2024 election also saw huge changes in the city when Jon Ashworth’s Leicester South seat was claimed by Independent candidate Shockat Adam in the biggest local twist of election night, and Leicester East returned its first non-Labour MP in 37 years in Shivani Raja.

Now, a new YouGov poll reveals a much more politically diverse set of MPs for the city and county, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK turning parts of the county turquoise for the first time ever, although Mr Brien is predicted to keep his Harborough seat.

Based on current voting intentions, YouGov found Reform UK would be the big winners locally, seeing four brand new MPs elected out of the 10 local seats. They would be predicted to take Melton and Syston (Ed Argar), Mid Leicestershire (Peter Bedford) and South Leicestershire (Alberto Costa) from the Conservatives, and North West Leicestershire from Labour’s Amanda Hack.

These results reflect recent changes at county council level with this year’s local election seeing political control of County Hall move from the Conservatives to Reform UK, which came away with just three seats less than it needed to form a majority. The Conservatives dropped from 42 to 15 councillors and now form the main opposition on the authority.

Labour would match its three-seat position from last year’s election, but with changes as to which constituencies it would take. Loughborough and Leicester West would be held by Jeevun Sandher and Liz Kendall respectively if they were to stand again, but Leicester South would return to the Labour fold after voting Independent in 2024.

The Conservatives would drop from six seats across the city and county to just two – Shivani Raja’s Leicester East post and Neil O’Brien’s Harborough, Oadby and Wigston constituency being their only wins. Meanwhile, Luke Evans’ Hinckley and Bosworth seat would be taken by the Liberal Democrats under current voting intentions.

These predictions match wider expectations across the country. Were a poll to be held tomorrow, YouGov found the outcome would topple the UK’s historic two-party state system.

Mr Farage’s party would come out ahead with 271 seats, putting them some way ahead of Labour on 178, but not hitting the 326 MP threshold for a majority. Reform currently has five representatives in the House of Commons, while Labour has 403.

The Conservatives’ dismal results last year would be compounded further as they would come away as the fourth largest party with just 46 seats – 74 less than their current standing. The Lib Dems would move into third place with 81 seats, up from the 72 they now hold.